Current ENSO Status
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Monthly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. Values above +0.5°C (red dashed line) indicate El Niño conditions; values below −0.5°C (blue dashed line) indicate La Niña conditions. The Niño 3.4 region in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific is the primary ENSO monitoring area.
ENSO Forecast Plume
Forecast Niño 3.4 SST anomalies from approximately 30 dynamical and statistical models, updated monthly by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (North American Multi-Model Ensemble). The spread between models indicates forecast uncertainty — wider spread means lower confidence in the ENSO trajectory.
ENSO Probability Forecast
Probability of each ENSO category (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) by overlapping 3-month season, issued by the Climate Prediction Center. Bars taller than others indicate higher likelihood of that state. ENSO state strongly influences winter precipitation patterns across the southern US and the Pacific Northwest.
Seasonal Outlooks — Temperature & Precipitation
Climate Prediction Center outlooks show the probability of above-normal (red/orange), near-normal (white), or below-normal (blue) temperature and precipitation across the United States. Outlooks are issued monthly. ENSO state, soil moisture, and other climate signals inform these forecasts.
